Posted on May - 08 - 2011
Next qestion, how does it work?
Here lies the difficult question. How does software estimation actually work? Conceptually speaking its simple, in practice however, that’s where things become more difficult. I’m sure some of you have a book somewhere by a fellow named Steve McConnel. The book, Software Estimation, carries the subtitle “Demystifying the Black Art” which paints software estimation in a light that it doesn’t really deserve, addressing software estimations reputation as being complex and uncertain.
From a conceptual basis, and certainly when done right, software estimation is not complex at all. Why? Because the computer does all the heavy lifting. The human aspect of software estimation largely relies on regular data entry, supplying the software with as complete a data set as possible.
Why would you need a large data set? That reasoning is the difference between a census and a sample. A sample survey asks a set of questions from a portion of a population, and then extrapolates the results of that survey to make estimates regarding the population at large. A census survey asks a set of questions to the entire population, removing the need to extrapolate.
So, once you plug in all of the relevant information for whatever you wish to estimate, that’s when the computer goes to work, and here’s McConnel’s ‘black art’ stuff. Depending on what you wish to solve, the software estimation tool of your choosing is going to rely on any number of technologies including, but not limited to, parametric algorithms, simulation-based probability techniques, grouping, and historical conclusions. And, of course, each software estimation tool uses different combinations to perform estimations.
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