Software Estimation BlogInformation on Cost Estimation & Software Estimating

By Robert P Hunt (Galorath Incorporated), Paul J. Solomon (Performance-Based Earned Value), and Dan Galorath (Galorath Incorporated)

Often, traditional earned value approaches do not deal sufficiently with the idiosyncrasies of software intensive programs.  However, successful management of software intensive programs can be achieved by focusing on establishing the requirements, developing a reliable baseline estimate for cost and schedule, selecting effective software metrics, applying Performance-Based Earned Value® (PBEV), and using analytic processes to project cost and schedule based on actual performance.

Introduction

The Department of Defense estimates that software now accounts for 40% of all research, development, test and evaluation (RDT&E) spending[i].  Software intensive projects that achieve their original cost and schedule projections are rare.  Many information technology projects have been declared a disaster area by commercial and government managers.  These projects have been too costly, too late, and often don’t work right.  Applying appropriate technical and management techniques can significantly improve the current situation.

Inaccurate estimates can threaten project success causing poor project implementations, shortcutting critical processes, and emergency staffing to recover schedule.   The lack of well defined project requirements and specifications may result in significant growth in cost and schedule.   Symptoms of this growth may include constantly changing project goals, frustration, customer dissatisfaction, cost overruns, missed schedules, and the failure of a project to meet its objectives.

PMI published an analysis of several government defense and intelligence agency large-scale acquisition programs that experienced significant cost and schedule growth.  This analysis shows that several critical factors need to be addressed in the pre-acquisition phase of the acquisition cycle.  The principal causes of growth on these large-scale programs can be traced to several causes related to overzealous advocacy, immature technology, lack of corporate technology roadmaps, requirements instability, ineffective acquisition strategy, unrealistic program baselines, inadequate systems engineering, and work-force issues.[ii] This paper will discuss some key elements associated with:

• Establishing a process for requirements definition and developing the cost and schedule baseline
• Developing a reliable cost and schedule baseline,
• Identifying critical software management metrics,
• Applying Performance-Based Earned Value (PBEV), and
• Using an analytic process (such as SEER Control;) to project cost and schedule based on actual performance.

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So, you’ve checked over all of your initial data, and nothing seemed out of the ordinary. You’ve double checked with the client and you know exactly what they think that they want. And you’ve plugged all of that carefully measured data into your software estimation program of choice and hit the enter key.

Congratulations and welcome to the baseline!

You’re now at the moment where if nothing changes (they will) and everything goes according to plan (they won’t), this is exact estimate of cost, team-size, and time relating to your project.

It’s a sound idea to take a good look at the baseline estimate before releasing it either internally or to the client on the offhand chance that there was an actual mistake on the initial data collection. If you’ve worked on similar projects before, and you have previous baseline estimates, these can be helpful for a quick comparison.

If everything appears to be in order, then the fun begins – the collection of “What if”s that can skillfully whittle down a baseline estimate into a lean, productive, completed project that lands under-budget and ahead of time.

Related articles

• Early Estimating Is Like Martial Arts (galorath.com)
• React Faster and Better: Before the Attack (securosis.com)
• DoD Affordability: Implementing Directive For Ash Carter Initiative (galorath.com)

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• Software Project Monitoring & Control (galorath.com)
• Lessons learned On Major Engineering Program: Viable Cost Estimated needed (galorath.com)
• IT Project Failure Warning Signs (galorath.com)
• Evaluating the Benefits of Service Oriented Architecture: SEER in support of SOA Implementation Decisions (galorath.com)